Did I make a good fold with AKo?

HOTD_4.jpg

Blinds (5/10)

  • UTG (1000) 
  • UTG+1 (800)
  • CO (1000)
  • BU (700)
  • SB (1400)
  • BB (1100)

Preflop: Hero is BU with AsKc

2 folds, CO raises to 30, BU 3-bets to 100, SB and BB fold, CO calls

Flop (Pot size 215): Ad Jh 4h

CO checks, BU bets 150, CO calls

Turn (Pot size 615): Jc

CO checks, BU checks.

River (Pot size 615): 7c

CO bets 300, BU folds.

Analysis:

The first point to note is the stack size. The hero has just about 70 big blinds. What we recommend is to always have at least 100 big blinds to start a hand. This allows for more post flop maneuverability. 

Preflop, it is standard. Cut off raises, and we have a strong hand to 3-bet. The sizing of 3.5x the initial raise is also good. CO calls. This means that, we can discount strong hands like AA, KK and sometimes QQ and AK from his range, because we assume that CO will always 4-bet us with them. Other hands that he is flatting our raise with could be broadways (AQ, KQ, KJs, QJ, QTs), suited connectors (89s, J9s), pairs (22-JJ and sometimes QQ). 

Flop, it is a good flop for us. Villain checks, we bet and he calls. Now we need to assign a range for his flop continuing range. It could be Top pairs (AQ, AT, A9s kind of hands), Gutshots (KQ, QTs, KTs), Middle Pairs (QJ, KJ, JTs, J9s), slow played set (44)

We assume that the villain isn't calling with small pairs. Also, we assume that villain is not slowplaying his two pair (AJ, A4s), so we discount that from his range. 

Turn, it is not a great card for us. Since Villain has a lot of J in his range. Villain checks and we decide to pot control and thus check back.

River, villain leads out for 300 which is about half pot, and we have a decision to make. This is a tough spot. 

If we look at villain's value range - QJ, KJ, JT, J9, 44

Bluff range - All the gutshots and flush draws - KQ, QT, KT, T9s, 98s, 87s

There is also Ax kind of hands in villain's range which we cannot say for sure if he is going to bet on the river.

Villain's value range has slightly more hands than his bluff range.

The decision should be based on the following factors:

  1. Does the villain call our 3-bet with a lot of small suited connectors?
  2. Is the villain going to lead the turn sometimes when turning trips?
  3. Is the villain going to bet bigger for his value on the river?
  4. Is the villain going to sometimes bluff raise his flush draws on the flop?
  5. Is the villain going to value bet his top pair weak kicker on the river?

If villain is more likely to do 1, 2, 3, 5 and less likely to do 4 then we should call. And vice-versa, we should fold.

Leave your questions and comments below.